EVALUATION REPORT

Initial Evaluation Of The Effectiveness Of
Mr. Shan R. Shanmugasundaram's
Sun Shadow Deviation Measurement Based
Earthquake Forecasting Procedure

And It’s Significance to Earth Science,
Geophysics & Seismology

Part-4

By:

Chen I-wan, Advisor
Committee of Natural Hazards Prediction
of the China Geophysics Society

(messenger@xrg-china.com)


Conclusions:

Considering the previously discussed information my personal conclusions are as follows:

1.      Shan’s EQ forecasting effort, which involves the SSD forecasting procedure for predicting EQs occurring over almost half of the globe is already very successful. And that success provides further scientific evidence that the often heard claim that “Earthquakes can not be predicted” is not only a scientifically inaccurate statement, but also a convenient excuse which is being used by the media, public and governmental officials to avoid becoming involved with important earthquake forecasting efforts. Accordingly Shan’s successful work has made a great contribution to the science of EQ forecasting.

2.      Sooner or later the mainstream science community will recognize that Shan’s successful observation of  SSD, the temporary shifts – tilting in the rotation of the Earth on its North – South Pole axis, and its relationship with EQs, their magnitude, and when and  where they will occur in an area covering half of the globe centered around the observatory site, has also provided further scientific evidence which will help to correct a series of fundamental mistakes involving basic Earth science, geophysics and seismology theories. 

3.      Shan’s data rule out the possibility that his SSD observations are the result of a tilt in the local crust surface or that they are the result of any phenomena other than the temporary shifts – tilting in the rotation of the Earth on its North – South Pole axis. Such temporary shifts – tilting are the only possible explanation for good agreement between his SSD observations and predicted EQs, their magnitude, and when and where they will occur in an area covering half the globe centered arround his observatory site.

4.      Because of the low cost and simplicity of his SSD observation system and the accuracy of his results it would be appropriate to establish similar observatories in remote and/or low income areas of developing countries. For those same reasons such observatories would be ideal as teaching aids in schools everywhere including in technically advanced countries. They would enable children and young students to acquire an important and interesting understanding of the Earth and knowledge of Earth science.  However, it is important for people to realize that without at least a few years of consistent SSD deviation observation it would be impossible for them to duplicate what Shan has already achieved in the science of EQ forecasting through his eight years of hard work. Accordingly, Shan's technical guidance in the establishment of similar observatories and SSD observation work would be essential for achievement of success within shorter periods of time.

5.      Based on my studies of a number of effective EQ prediction techniques developed in China since the “Magnetic Storm Double Time Method”, the first successful EQ prediction method was developed by Zhang Tie-zheng in 1970, on my studies of certain other methods developed abroad, and on my present evaluation of Shan’s SSD observation based EQ prediction method, I believe that it is obvious that earthquakes can be predicted. Most if not all of the key technical issues to assuring the accuracy and reliability of EQ prediction have already been solved through different techniques developed by various EQ forecasting researchers in China and abroad.

What is missing at the present time? 

1)      Our primary concern should be people’s interests and lives, especially people living in structurally unsound houses in seismic hazard risk areas. We need to have a social sense of responsibility and a strong will and determination that it is of the utmost importance that we have an ability to forecast EQs and to avoid or to at least reduce EQ related loss of life and property.

2)      We must recognize the fact that many EQs in different countries have been successfully predicted in the past by EQ forecasters using a variety of techniques. Seismologists need to change their attitudes. They should stop looking for reasons to justify their constant claims that earthquakes cannot be predicted. Instead they need to make the search for successful EQ forecasters and effective techniques in their own countries and abroad a priority. And they need to learn how to cooperate with those EQ forecasters in developing the most successful techniques.

3)      People and governmental officials should carefully examine the available data and accept the fact that it should be possible to forecasts earthquakes right now. It is not necessary to wait for another 10 years. 

4)      We need to make a teamwork effort to organize an effective network of observation stations equipped with the most successful and collaborating techniques based on different geophysical disciplines.  We need to integrate long-term, medium-term, short-term forecasting and imminent confirmation methods. Attention should not be focused exclusively on any one forecasting method. 

5)     Governmental support is vital.

6)    In addition to what has been proven by other EQ prediction techniques developed in both China and abroad, Shan’s SSD observation EQ prediction technique has shown us that: Accurate and reliable EQ prediction not only requires regional-international cooperation but also global cooperation. This is both possible and essential.

 

Discussions:

During the “can earthquakes be predicted” debated which was organized on the Nature’s website during Feb. – April, 1999

l         For the mainstream science community, Prof. Robert Geller correctly pointed out: “Why is prediction so difficult? This question cannot be answered conclusively, as we do not yet have a definitive theory of the seismic source”.

l         Didier Sornette further pointed out: “…… we need fundamentally new approaches for understanding what are earthquakes, ……A fundamental understanding of earthquakes, not only of the source problem but of the full seismic cycles, is thus called for.”

Regarding the SSD observed by Shan and it’s relationship with the occurrence of EQs at different times and at different locations on the globe, truly a “fundamentally new approach”, Shan stated at his Website:

 

l         “The physical theory of planet earth indicates that earth rotates on its own axis with an inclination of 23.5 degree and completes a cycle once in 24 hours. In addition to its own rotation, in its course of earth journey around the sun, the earth’s axis maintains a nearly constant direction in space making an angle of 66.5 degree with the plan of its orbit. As a result, the angle at which the sunrays strike a point on the earth also changes. 

l         “When earth rotates on its own axis, with an inclination of 23.5 degree, due to unknown reasons, the degree gets tilted during some days and gets back to normal, which activate the molten lava to push the mantle. In other words, the drifting of the inclination angle of the earth and its automatic set right to its original position, activate the plate tectonics and the pressurized molten lava tends to puncture the weaker portion of the earth plates causes earth quake and volcanic eruption, which depends upon the crust of the earth where it tends to come out.”

What are the “unknown reasons” responsible for the SSD observed by Shan? What causes the temporary shifts – tilting in the rotation of the Earth on its North – South Pole axis? What role does this have on the Earth’s core, on the mantle, and on the triggering of EQs? All these issues will be discussed in future reports. They could not be addressed here.

The above evaluation is an initial evaluation of Shan’s EQ forecasting work. I am sure other researchers will conduct further more detailed evaluation of his work based on more data for a much longer period of his SSD observation based EQ forecasting work.

Acknowledgement:

The people of Indian should be congratulated for the fact that they have dedicated researchers such as  R. Shanmugasundaramin working in their country.  He has demonstrated a strong sense of social responsibility and sincere concern for the lives of people living in India and around the world.

I would like to express my personal appreciation to the people at the The Catholic Syrian Bank Ltd. of India and to Shan's colleagues for their being so understanding with regard to his SSD observation work during the past eight years. Such understanding is important to every independent researcher’s ability to make a breakthrough in any field of science.

I must also express my sincere thanks to E.D.G. for spending considerable time helping me to edit the text of this report. The opinions expressed in this report are my own personal opinions. They are not necessarily the same as his.

[ End ]  

[ Evaluation Report : Part 1 || Part 2 || Part 3 ]


Please send your comments and suggestions to Chen I-wan <<>> Shan


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