|
|||||||
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|||||||
EVALUATION REPORT 
Initial Evaluation Of The Effectiveness Of
Mr. Shan
R. Shanmugasundaram's
Sun Shadow Deviation Measurement Based
Earthquake
Forecasting Procedure
And It’s Significance to Earth
Science,
Geophysics & Seismology
Part-2
By:
Chen I-wan,
Advisor
The criteria I have used for these evaluations is as follows:
|
Ratings |
Days |
Lat./Long. |
Magnitude
(Ms) |
Failure
|
>/=3 |
>/=3 |
>/=1.0 |
|
Success |
</=2 |
</=2 |
</=0.5 |
|
Practical |
>2 |
>2 |
>0.5 |
|
Value |
<3 |
<3 |
<1.0 |
|
Scientific |
>2 |
>3 |
>0.5 |
|
Value |
<3 |
<4 |
<1.0 |
|
Total
Value = Success + Practical Value + Scientific Value |
|||
Practical
Value: The prediction could be used to provide seismic hazard monitoring
departments within or close to the concerned region with information that would
help them enhance their seismic monitoring efforts around and during the time
windows for the expected EQs.
Scientific
Value: The prediction would not be accurate enough to be useful as an EQ
warning. However, it would be accurate enough to provide evidence that the
observed SSD was linked with a temporary shift – tilting in the Earth’s
North – South Pole rotation axis.
Shan’s
EQ forecasts:
|
Forecast Code |
Location |
Lat. |
Long. |
From |
Until |
Ms |
|
20030815SSS-A |
Hindu Kush Region, |
36.62 |
71.17 |
2003.08.14 |
2003.08.22 |
Ms5 |
|
20030815SSS-B |
Andaman Islands |
12.14 |
93.52 |
2003.08.14 |
2003.08.22 |
Ms5 |
|
20030815SSS-C |
Southern Sumatera |
-2.2 |
105 |
2003.08.14 |
2003.08.22 |
Ms5 |
|
20030815SSS-D |
Southern Xinjiang,
China |
40.5 |
80.5 |
2003.08.14 |
2003.08.22 |
Ms5 |
|
20030815SSS-E |
East Coast of
Kamchatka |
51.26 |
158.87 |
2003.08.14 |
2003.08.22 |
Ms5 |
|
20030815SSS-F |
Sumba Region |
-9.95 |
119.13 |
2003.08.14 |
2003.08.22 |
Ms5 |
|
20030815SSS-G |
Banda Sea |
-7.4 |
128.4 |
2003.08.14 |
2003.08.22 |
Ms5 |
|
20030815SSS-H |
Irian Jaya, Indonesia |
-1.6 |
134.3 |
2003.08.14 |
2003.08.22 |
Ms5 |
|
20030815SSS-I |
New Britain Region |
-5.54 |
148.94 |
2003.08.14 |
2003.08.22 |
Ms5 |
Forecast Code – Actual EQs Parameters:
|
Forecast Code |
Actual Date |
Lat. |
Long. |
|
|
Location |
Source |
|
|
20030815SSS-A |
2003.08.15 |
37.6 |
70.4 |
4.9 |
mb |
Afghanistan- |
REDPUMA |
EMS |
|
20030815SSS-B |
2003.08.21 |
12.962 |
93.037 |
4.7 |
Ms |
Andaman Islands, |
NEIC |
|
|
20030815SSS-C |
2003.08.21 |
2.289 |
96.549 |
5.2 |
Ms |
Simeulue, Indonesea |
USGS |
|
|
20030815SSS-D |
2003.08.23 |
41.6 |
79 |
4.7 |
mb |
Kyrgyzstan-Xinjiang |
REDPUMA |
EMS |
|
20030815SSS-E |
2003.08.14 |
55.4 |
162.4 |
4.9 |
Ms |
Near East Coast of |
REDPUMA |
NEI |
|
20030815SSS-F |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
20030815SSS-G |
2003.08.20 |
-6.492 |
129.748 |
4.8 |
Ms |
Banda Sea |
USGS |
|
|
20030815SSS-H |
2003.08.22 |
-0.49 |
132.36 |
4.5 |
Ms |
Near North Coast of |
NEIC |
|
|
20030815SSS-I |
2003.08.16 |
-4.584 |
151.76 |
5.3 |
Ms |
New Britain Region, |
NEIC |
|
Forecast
Code –Evaluation Statistics
Calculation:
|
Forecast/Actual EQ
Error |
Evaluation Statistics
Calculation |
||||||||
|
Forecast Code |
Days |
Lat. |
|||||||