EVALUATION REPORT

Initial Evaluation Of The Effectiveness Of
Mr. Shan R. Shanmugasundaram's
Sun Shadow Deviation Measurement Based
Earthquake Forecasting Procedure
And It’s Significance to Earth Science,
Geophysics & Seismology

Part-3

By:

Chen I-wan, Advisor
Committee of Natural Hazards Prediction
of the China Geophysics Society
(messenger@xrg-china.com)

Statistical Results of the Evaluation

Statistics From July 24 - Aug 31, 2003

Total

Failure

Success

Practical Value

Success + Practical Val.

Scientific Value

Success+Pract. & Science Val.

121

84

20

17

37

12

49

100.0%

69.4%

16.5%

14.0%

30.6%

9.9%

40.5%

Statistics From Sep 1  - Sep 30, 2003

Total

Failure

Success

Practical Value

Success + Practical Val.

Scientific Value

Success+Pract. & Science Val.

150

96

37

17

54

10

64

100.0%

64.0%

24.7%

11.3%

36.0%

6.7%

42.7%

Statistics From Oct 1 - Oct 18, 2003

Total

Failure

Success

Practical Value

Success + Practical Val.

Scientific Value

Success+Pract. & Science Val.

65

31

17

17

53

2

36

100.0%

47.7%

26.2%

26.2%

45.7%

3.1%

55.4%

Statistics From July 24 - Oct 18, 2003

Total

Failure

Success

Practical Value

Success + Practical Val.

Scientific Value

Success+Pract. & Science Val.

387

243

87

57

144

27

171

100.0%

62.8%

22.5%

14.7%

37.2%

7.0%

44.2%

 

Notes:

(1) Total Predictions = Failure + Success + Practical Value

(2) Total Number of Predictions which have at least some value = Success + Practical Value + Scientific Value

(2) As explained above, from practical value for EQ forecasting, predictions rated as Scientific Value fall under Failure. Accordingly, Failure + Success + Practical Value + Scientific Value > Total.

Restrictions & Limitations of Shan’s SSD based EQ Predictions

From what I understand regarding how Shan’s forecasting method works:

1)     He runs his SSD observation and forecasting program is without any assistance during his spare time. And his SSD observations are conducted at a single location. 

2)    Shan feels that a minimum of 3 days bright sunshine is necessary for a prediction. In some cases a 5 days of bright sunshine are required. His ability to collect observation data is strongly affected by the time that he has available to make the observations and also the availability of sunlight at the observation time. Observations cannot be made on strongly overcast days. 

3)     Shan is doing this work without any governmental support for his efforts and relies on visual measurement rather than any modern or advanced equipment.

 

Interesting example A: Xinjiang Ms5.9 38.5N; 75.1E, 2003.09.02 07:16am (Beijing time)

On Aug. 28, 2003 Shan announced following prediction on his website:

l        I suspect around 6 to 6+M quake over SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA (39.63N 77.19E) within 48 to 130 hours from 10AM 28th August 2003.

On Aug. 28, 2003, the same day, I personally forwarded Shan’s above EQ forecast to the Xinjiang Autonomous Region Government’s Office and the Xinjiang Seismology Bureau.

On Sep. 2, 2003, the State Seismology Bureau of China announced that an Ms5.9 EQ occurred in Aketou county 38.5N 75.1E at 07:16 (Beijing time) on Sep. 2, 2003.

On Sep. 3, 2003, following the occurrence of the above EQ, I forwarded a report to the Xinjiang Seismology Bureau, the Analysis Forecast Center of the State Seismology Bureau of China, the China Geophysics Society and its Natural Hazard Prediction Committee, in which the above forecast and the actual EQ was compared as follows:

l  Occurrence Time:

Prediction: Aug. 28 12:00am – Sep. 3 (Beijing time);

Actual: 2003.09.02 07:16am (Beijing time)

Error: Very accurate for prediction of an Ms5.9 EQ

l  Occurrence Location:

Prediction: Xinjiang (39.63N 77.19E)

Actual: Xinjiang (38.5N 75.1E)

Error: Latitude (39.63 – 38.5 = 1.13) Longitude (77.19 – 75.1 =2.09)

l  Magnitude:

Prediction: Ms6 to Ms6+

Actual:Ms5.9

Error: Ms0.1

Note: The parameters of the above EQ determined by different seismic monitoring stations under the EMSC network vary from mb6.0 at 38.6N 76.9E (LDG), to mb6.2 at 38.4N 76.0E (GFZ), mb5.7 37.0N 75.0E (LED), MW5.7 at 38.3N 75.6E (FLN), mb5.9 at 38.9N 75.3E (MAD), M5.8 at 38.6N 75.2E (NEIR), MW5.5 at 38.9N 75.5E (LOR), mb5.9 at 38.7N 75.2E (INFO), M6.1 at 39.0 75.6E (BGR), Ms5.7 at 39.0 75.1E (GSRC), M5.8 at 39.2N 75.0E (INGV). 

Although the above mentioned Occurrence Time and the Magnitude of the prediction was quite successful, according to the EQ Prediction Evaluation Criteria stipulated by the State Seismology Bureau of China, as the prediction of the location was 219km away from the epicenter location (38.5N 75.1E) determined by the State Seismology Bureau, which exceeded the successful 100km limit criteria for evaluating EQs with magnitudes of </=Ms5.9, Shan’s above prediction in overall was considered as a failure.

However, if Shan’s prediction is evaluated against the parameters of some of the EMSC announcements, the conclusion based on the same set of above criteria could be more successful.

Interesting example B:

On Sep. 24 2003, Shan posted a prediction to the EarthWaves.org Internet Bulletin Board:

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/19454.html

7.5M Quake over Rat Island....Posted by R.Shanmugasundaram on September 24, 2003 at 19:05:37:

Expected:

Magnitude: 7 to 7.5M From: 24th Sept. 03 - To: 30th Sept. 03

Location: Rat Islands Lat: 51.49N – Long: 177.07E - Range: 250 KMs

Then, on Sep. 25, 2003, Shan’s prediction on his website included:

Around 4 to 5M quakes over HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION (43.1N 143.3E)

Expected: within 48 to 180 hours from 10 AM IST on 25th Sept. 2003.

Two strong EQs occurred within the above time window:

l         27 Sep2003 11:33:25.0 50.1N  87.7E 18 M =7.5 M*NEI SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA (Redpuma)

l         25 Sep2003 19:50:07.0 41.9N 143.8E 33 M =8.3 M*NEI HOKKAIDO, JAPAN  REGION (Redpuma)

Shan’s prediction were not accurate with some of their details. But after the two above EQs occurred he was surprised to discover the following which he explained to me:

l    “What is interesting is the fact that the precursor was very different type. And for that reason I specifically mentioned that 2nd strong quake could also be possible in a nearby area. That one did in fact occur in S/W Siberia.” 

l       “Another interesting observation is the fact that Hokkaido and Rat Islands are situated more or less in a straight line if you draw it from Coimbatore, South India. Suppose if an observatory working in Kamchatka Peninsula, perhaps it may be easily predicted the quake over Hokkaido rather Rat Island, of course if sunshine favors.”

In my opinion, accurate observation and measurement of shifts – tilting variations in the Earth's rotation on its North – South Pole axis would require the following:

n       Continuous worldwide SSD observations. This would require that similar observatories be established in different locations of India and different parts of the world including both the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere. And those observatories should be equipped with modern observation and recording equipment.

n       Simultaneous tilt meter observations and recordings. They would provide information regarding possible tilting of the local crust surface. 

n       Observations during night hours by astronomy observatories. They would make it possible to generate data regarding temporary shift – tilting variations in the rotation of the Earth on its North – South Pole axis on a 24 hours basis.

n       Researchers could exchange all of those observation data on a real-time basis through the use of Internet resources.  

[ Evaluation Report : Part 1 || Part 2 || Part 4 ]

Please send your comments and suggestions to Chen I-wan <<>> Shan


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